We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.Įven in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score. The digital SAT represents a content change - mainly on Reading and Writing - but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score. The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. He shared our latest insights and updated forecasts as the role of testing steadily regains significance in competitive contexts. Breaking News: We now have the results from all of the 1,490,000 juniors who took the October 2023 PSAT and have updated our estimates accordingly.Ĭompass Co-founder Adam Ingersoll hosted a strategy session that helped students interpret their official PSAT results and craft a smart path forward.
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